Volatility Forecasting for High-Frequency Financial Data Based on Web Search Index and Deep Learning Model

نویسندگان

چکیده

The existing index system for volatility forecasting only focuses on asset return series or historical volatility, and the prediction model cannot effectively describe highly complex nonlinear characteristics of stock market. In this study, we construct an investor attention factor through a Baidu search antecedent keywords, then combine other trading information such as volume, trend indicator, quote change rate, etc., input indicators, finally employ deep learning via temporal convolutional networks (TCN) to forecast under high-frequency financial data. We found that accuracy TCN with is better than those without attention, traditional econometric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), heterogeneous realized (HAR-RV), fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models, long short-term memory (LSTM) attention. Compared multi-step results remain robust. Our findings provide more accurate robust method big data enrich forecasting.

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Mathematics

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['2227-7390']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/math9040320